中英对照：模型预测非洲粮食短缺

非常好

尼日尔农民在田间

　　 Technology predicts African food shortages 　　Satellite data could soon help predict and manage food shortages in Africa, with the help of a new model developed by NASA. 　　Molly Brown, from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Centre, has developed a model that combines remotely-sensed crop data with grain prices to predict changes in food prices in the future. 　　"We hope that the model can directly benefit small and medium sized traders and businessmen in the region once it becomes operational," Brown told SciDev.Net. 　　Brown tested the model on historical data from West Africa. NASA satellites sense the 'greenness' of vegetation, giving an idea of the amount of rainfall and hence the amount of grain the crops will produce. 　　These satellite measurements are then combined with spatial maps of millet prices, and coupled with estimates of vegetation data one to four months in the future. 　　The software is still being developed, but Brown hopes to produce a portable version of the model in the next few years. 　　Brown says she was inspired to create the new method while working in Niger, a region often affected by drought. Farmers here can grow only a few drought-resistant crops, and so when a food crisis happens they are forced to buy grain at very high prices. 　　"With this new study, for the first time we can leverage satellite observations of crop production to create a more accurate price model that will help humanitarian aid organisations and other decision makers predict how much food will be available and what its cost will be as a result," said Brown. 　　The idea is that aid agencies can then provide the right amounts of food to keep prices steady. 　　But Vanessa Rubin, Africa hunger advisor for CARE International UK, an aid agency working in Niger, says it is important to recognise that food production is not the only factor determining market prices. 　　"The closure of regional trade borders in 2005 in Niger is commonly cited as a major contributing factor to the wild market fluctuations that escalated grain prices out of the reach of millions," she told SciDev.Net. 　　She also says that stable markets do not necessarily guarantee food security. 　　"Production and market prices are just one piece of the drought puzzle; drought is just one piece of the food security puzzle; and food security is just one piece of the vulnerability puzzle." 　　The NASA study will be published early next year in the journal Land Economics. 　　模型预测非洲粮食短缺 　　在美国宇航局开发的一种新型计算机模型的帮助下，卫星数据将可能很快用于帮助预测和改善非洲的粮食短缺。 　　美国宇航局戈达德宇航中心的Molly Brown开发了一种模型，它把遥感作物数据和粮食价格结合在了一起，从而可以预测未来粮食价格的变化。 　　Brown告诉本网站说：“我们希望一旦这种模型开始投入使用，就能让该区域的中小规模交易商和生意人受益。” 　　Brown用西非的历史数据检验了该模型。美国宇航局的卫星能感知植被的“绿色”程度，这体现了降雨量的多少，因此也就能推测出农作物能生产出的粮食总量。然后，这些卫星的测量数据与粟米价格的空间分布数据结合了起来，并与未来1到4个月对植被的估计数据联系起来。 　　该软件仍然处于开发中，但是Brown希望在未来的几年中开发出一个便携版本的模型。 　　Brown说她是在尼日尔工作期间获得了发明这种新方法的灵感。尼日尔是经常受到干旱影响的区域。那里的农民只能种植几种耐旱作物，因此，一旦发生粮食危机，他们就要被迫以非常高的价格购买粮食。 　　Brown说：“这项新的研究让我们首次可以利用卫星观测粮食产量，从而建立一个更精确的价格模型，它将帮助人道主义援助组织和其它决策者预测粮食供应情况以及粮食价格最终是多少。”它的关键在于援助机构可以因此提供合适数量的粮食，从而让价格保持稳定。 　　但是在尼日尔开展工作的援助机构凯尔国际(CARE International)的非洲饥荒问题顾问Vanessa Rubin说，认识到粮食产量并非决定市场价格的唯一因素，这是很重要的。她告诉本网站说：“2005年尼日尔区域贸易口岸的关闭通常被认为是造成市场价格疯狂波动的主要因素，粮食的涨价让数以百万人无力购买。” 　　她还说稳定的市场并不必然保证粮食安全。“产量和市价不过是干旱难题的一部分；干旱不过是粮食安全难题的一部分；而粮食安全只不过是环境脆弱性难题的一部分。” 　　美国宇航局的这项研究将在明年早期发表于《土地经济学》杂志上。 　　本文由科学与发展网络(SciDev.Net)独家提供。

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针锋相对

还是让非洲的农民朋友多种一些菜吧！
这里的菜实在是太贵了！！